Rational Exuberance

Federal Reserve Contextual Insights

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Key Benefits

Rational Exuberance parses news, economic data, and official FOMC statements, combining, analyzing, and transforming noisy data into a better forecast of interest rate changes.

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The tone of the FOMC and news outlets relative to key economic indicators



Short-term interest rates more accurately using our Synthetic Fed Futures Index



Thousands of articles pertaining to inflation and employment (the Fed's dual mandate)



Individual Fed governor sentiment & influence and understand the triggers of change

Why Rational Exuberance?

Visualize the divergences between the Fed's interpretation of economic indicators versus the market

Understand FOMC chatter at the most granular level starting with individual Fed governors and all their individual commentary around topics relating to inflation and employment.

  • Individually scores each governor's dovish and hawkishness by topic

  • Compares official FOMC commentary to market commentary in the contexts of inflation and employment to identify actionable divergences

Our interest rate predictions are more accurate, granular, and actionable than the WSJ and the 60 economists they survey

  • Continuously gauge conditions and forecast short term yields

  • Interprets all FOMC communications, key economic releases, and relevant market chatter (articles, blogs, tweets etc.)

How it works

Rational Exuberance continuously analyzes 1000s of articles daily to find divergences between the Fed and the market around the dovishness and hawkishness surrounding inflation and employment.

Modular Core Capabilities

Rational Exuberance is built from a specific combination of our core technologies trained to understand the context of industry-specific language. It combines proprietary algorithms for metadata and snippet extraction, labeling, content enrichment, machine learning, and deep learning, activation functions, and sentiment analysis to create dynamic continuously learning models that produce differentiated outputs yielding predictive value.

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Industry Specific Training

Industry analysts who understand key topics and related nuances create semantically rich training datasets on the order of less than .1 percent of the data from which Rational Exuberance learns, thus scaling expertise. By understanding industry context in an adaptive manner, Rational Exuberance is able to accurately compute sentiment with a high level of semantic accuracy. It learns and understands granular concepts like "crack spreads" and "revPAR" and a continuously expanding topical coverage and depth of understanding.

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Continuous Learning and Improvement

The core technology powering Rational Exuberance has the unique ability to adapt dynamically and incorporate new information and contexts as they arise. Since our systems continuously learn, improve, and builds of new insights, we expect the value of Rational Exuberance to increase over time as it uncovers deeper insights from higher value data sources and develops a richer understanding across a variety of domains.

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Put us to the test!

Our Contextual engine has more than 96% accuracy compared to expert human level error for sentiment classification and quantification. Upload a financial document of your own and get it analyzed in seconds.

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