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Monetary Policy

The Fed produces more information, regarding its sentiment and views on monetary policy, than we can process


Divergences between the market and the Fed’s interpretation of new information create compelling investment opportunities

Biological Processing limits

Due to our biological processing limits, opportunities are often missed


Rational Exuberance Solution

Rational Exuberance continuously scrapes 1000s of sources, measuring hawkishness/dovishness, finding divergences between Fed and market sentiment, and transforming divergences into trading alerts and policy forecasts with real-time confidence measures


Using Accrete’s Rational Exuberance

Macro funds, credit funds, and global asset managers can better forecast Fed policy actions and short term interest rates by synthesizing vast volumes of relevant information

Forecast short term rates and see every dimension affecting Fed policy in one indicator

Rational Exuberance reads and distills tens of thousands of articles related to inflation and employment in real-time. It understands what it means to be dovish and hawkish in different contexts, amplifying your analytical reach.

Accrete Synthetic Fed Future (green) provides fair value estimates of the 30 Day Fed Funds and often leads the Fed Funds Future (black)
Accrete Synthetic Fed Future (green) provides fair value estimates of the 30 Day Fed Funds
and often leads the Fed Funds Future (black)
Accrete Synthetic Fed Future
Performance Statistics
Win Ratio 89.5%
Period Return 27.5%
Annualized Return 12.5%
Daily Sharpe Ratio 1.2
We provide an off-the-shelf 91 day T-bill strategy using our Accrete Fed Futures Index

Forecast with deeper understanding

Sentiment & Influence
Track individual Fed governor sentiment & influence
Alerts and watchlists
Alerts and watchlists push precise & customizable insights
Compare FOMC tone to economic market chatter

Rational Exuberance Use Cases

  • Economists at buy-side and sell-side funds can refine forecasting assumptions based on sentiment changes
  • Traders can make tactical changes in position sizing and hedge rate-sensitive positions

Not to Brag But...

Our interest rate predictions are more accurate, granular, and actionable than the WSJ and the 60 economists they survey

Not to Brag But

Application or API, the choice is yours

Fed Contextual Insights Applications

Fed Contextual Insights Applications

A mix of heat-map, chart and tabular GUIs to quickly visualize Fed sentiment data.

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Topic Deltas APIs

Fed Contextual Insights APIs

We speak your language. Includes all of our Fed sentiment data delivered in real-time.

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Grab your seat at the FOMC table

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